This Back in 1984, researchers at Carnegie Mellon University developed a self-driving car called the “Terregator” that used video cameras, sonar and laser to travel a few centimeters per second.
Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.washingtontimes.com
Countries who’s liability laws are “a bit more lax” a more likely to allow autonomous cars than the more litigious USA, according to this interview. That begs the question of companies like Volvo who say that a large percentage of accidents are caused by human error (I agree with that) however it would appear that American insurance companies and the legal profession will take some convincing. So we might higher adoption in other countries.
The interesting comments to me were about risks such as faded or missing lane markers. we have quite a lot of roads like that, whether due to maintenance priorities or damage from weather situations. Professor Rajkumar also said that heavy rain, fog and heavy snow are something they will continue to have to deal with for some time. LiDAR works best in good weather conditions and in countries like New Zealand these conditions are compounded by ambient light, that any regular commuters on Auckland’s North-Western Motorway can attest to.
I do believe that we will have driverless cars, but unless they are in controlled environments and protected from sudden unexpected behavior from unpredictable drivers, going to Gartner’s mass early adopters could take a lot longer than making the cars themselves, hence the strong marketing campaigns to make sure the world is ready for this innovation.
Rule of thumb for significant change, from idea to market adoption, even when it is a great concept and ready to go, take whatever time frame you think makes sense and double it. You’re probably still on the conservative side and as the story says, a couple of random spectacular failures or interference from unpredictable humans in other vehicles http://thefuturediaries.com/2013/04/19/boy-racers-make-sport-with-driverless-cars/ and it could take even longer.