How will advances in transportation technologies and shifts in social attitudes shape the future of mobility?
Sourced through Scoop.it from: dupress.com
As a futurist one of the hardest things to come to grips with, but the most important reality is that significant change takes time, a lot of time. In relation to previous eras, change happens very quickly, but it doesn’t take place as quickly as we think and they are evolutionary rather than revolutionary.
If you think the fit-bit is a revolution that occurred overnight, think again. When did you first get a pedometer? I think I got my first one about 15 years ago, but it could be longer. Of course this is a simple and low cost technology. Driverless cars as a total shift has massive implications as this article points out, not only to the way we drive and the implications for what happens on the road, but also to whole industries dependent on car purchasing and ownership.
I agree that the shift to reduced car ownership is being accelerated in cities due to the emergence of wild card companies like Uber and Lyft. I also strongly agree that the shift will occur at varying rates in different countries around the world and between cities well provisioned with safe, comfortable and timely public transport, versus rural areas where motor vehicle ownership is essential.
The benefits of reduced numbers of vehicles on the road (at massive costs to the GDP of some economies) will be enormous, once they develop all the supporting systems, but that takes time.
In the meantime, vehicle production and sales have yet to peak and whilst they may be safer, that also gives many inexperienced drivers more false security and other than through campaigns on fatigue, distracted and drug and alcohol impaired driving, many are driving faster in more powerful cars, without the skills to control them.
Back to the article, I recommend it to you as a more balanced view of the changes to come.
If you don’t want to read the article, here are the fundamental conclusions:
1: Industries will rise and fall. It’s a great time to be thinking about new careers and investments in new segments and a great time to get out of some as well.
2: The potential benefits of disruptors are compelling. They are creating the tipping points.It usually takes disruption to manifest significant change.
3: The auto industry can lead the changes, but traditional businesses as I have frequently blogged, find it very difficult to change. It’s significant that many of the changes today are not coming from Toyota, Ford or GM, but from Google, Tesla and OEMs. not to mention the Internet of Things and telecommunications.
4: The insiders and the disrupters need each other. Uber doesn’t work without someone making cars, driven or autonomous. Transport networks and management need both in order to deal with urban growth.
5: Profound disruption will extend far past the automotive industry. It will pervade everything we do.
6. It will not happen as quickly as many think it will, but the benefits of the technological developments will impact on our lives soon.