10 years ago they introduced incentives for people to purchase driverless cars. They also encouraged shared ownership designed to reduce the number of cars on the road. They have in fact reduced th…
Sourced through Scoop.it from: thefuturediaries.com
From the Future Diaries. Currently it is estimated that the average car spends 97% of it’s time parked up. Consider with family car sharing or sharing with 3rd parties that each car is utilized say 15% of the time, that effectively means 5 times more car journeys on the road, even if the actual car stock is reduced by as much as 30-50%.
It could reduce the car parking space required in urban centers, businesses and other locations, it could certainly improve convenience of transport but would also mean more people traveling more often, (think about kids for example, they would find a million reasons why they needed to use the car. Could you put a child of any age in a car to go visit friends, get to school, to sport practice or other activities?). If the congestion problem was solved in some areas through special lanes and platooning, it could be mitigated to some extent.
It would not encourage people to use public transport without incentives.
The concept of driverless cars is fascinating. It is inevitable although I think it will take a long time to cross through the Gartner hype cycle through the peak of inflated expectations and the trough of disillusionment, which is a good thing because, it will generate a whole new set of problems we need to solve before the real value is realized. Of course at the rate of change we are currently experiencing, we could see other initiatives in public transport, remote working and time shifting, as well as creating livable smart cities, that reduce the value proposition of this concept.
The likely early winners of this technology will be the data companies like Google and Apple and car manufacturers rather than society. It may be that the concept morphs into other areas such as driverless public transport, driverless shuttles to transport hubs, driverless freight. Often the outcome of new technologies like this evolve into something quite unexpected.At the moment most of the focus is on cool gadgets and technology, not on the impact and dramatic change it would have on society. When they created text messaging and smartphones, who could have predicted that children as young as 9 would be fixated on the need to have a Smartphone and how pervasive it would become to our lives?